Diplomatic and economic relations between Brazil and China (2002-2023)

Continuities, ruptures and challenges for the Lula government 3

Abstract

This article analyzes diplomatic and economic relations between Brazil and China from 2002 to 2023, focusing on Lula’s first and second terms, Bolsonaro (2019-2022), and Lula’s third term (2023 onwards). During these periods, the contrasts in Sino-Brazilian relations were evident, shifting from strategic partners to ideological tensions and eventually becoming a prime concern in 2023. During Bolsonaro’s term, China was especially criticized, and there was a tendency to align with the United States. With Lula's election in 2022, a more pragmatic stance focused on economic interests and South-South cooperation should occur. This switch in the leadership will likely result in a transition from an ideological rhetoric to a more pragmatic approach. This article also explores how these diplomatic relations have affected the trade and investment relations between these two countries, indicating a nearly autonomous dynamic; however, over the last few years, there have been negative impacts on Chinese investments in Brazil. Lastly, it is crucial to emphasize the need to diversify exports and reduce the risks of depending on the primary sector and of deindustrializion for the Brazilian economy.